Archive for August, 2017

We hereby retract the content of this paper

August 17th, 2017 No comments

Yesterday I came across a paper in software engineering that had been retracted, the first time I had encountered such a paper (I had previously written about how software engineering is great discipline for an academic fraudster).

Having an example of the wording used by the IEEE to describe a retracted paper (i.e., “this paper has been found to be in violation of IEEE’s Publication Principles”), I could search for more. I get 24,400 hits listed when “software” is included in the search, but clicking through the pages there are just 71 actual results.

A search of Retraction Watch using “software engineering” returns nine hits, none of which appear related to a software paper.

I was beginning to think that no software engineering papers had been retracted, now I know of one and if I am really interested the required search terms are now known.


Two approaches to arguing the 1969 IBM antitrust case

August 16th, 2017 No comments

My search for software engineering data has made me a regular customer of second-hand book sellers; a recent acquisition is: “Big Blue: IBM’s use and abuse of power” by Richard DeLamarter, which contains lots of interesting sales and configuration data for IBM mainframes from the first half of the 1960s.

DeLamarter’s case, that IBM systematically abused its dominant market position, looked very convincing to me, but I saw references to work by Franklin Fisher (and others) that, it was claimed, contained arguments for IBM’s position. Keen to find more data and hear alternative interpretations of the data, I bought “Folded, Spindled, and Mutilated” by Fisher, McGowan and Greenwood (by far the cheaper of the several books that have written on the subject).

The title of the book, Folded, Spindled, and Mutilated, is an apt description of the arguments contained in the book (which is also almost completely devoid of data). Fisher et al obviously recognized the hopelessness of arguing IBM’s case and spend their time giving general introductions to various antitrust topics, arguing minor points or throwing up various smoke-screens.

An example of the contrasting approaches is calculation of market share. In order to calculate market share, the market has to be defined. DeLamarter uses figures from internal IBM memos (top management were obsessed with maintaining market share) and quote IBM lawyers’ advice to management on phrases to use (e.g., ‘Use the term market leadership, … avoid using phrasing such as “containment of competitive threats” and substitute instead “maintain position of leadership.”‘); Fisher et al arm wave at length and conclude that the appropriate market is the entire US electronic data processing industry (the more inclusive the market used, the lower the overall share that IBM will have; using this definition IBM’s market share drops from 93% in 1952 to 43% in 1972 and there is a full page graph showing this decline), the existence of IBM management memos is not mentioned.

Why do academics risk damaging their reputation by arguing these hopeless cases (I have seen it done in other contexts)? Part of the answer is a fat pay check, but also many academics’ consider consulting for industry akin to supping with the devil (so they get a free pass on any nonsense sprouted when “just doing it for the money”).

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Books similar to my empirical software engineering book

August 7th, 2017 No comments

I am sometimes asked which other books are similar to the Empirical Software Engineering book I am working on.

In spirit, the most similar book is “Software Project Dynamics” by Abdel-Hamid and Madnick, based on Abdel-Hamid’s PhD thesis. The thesis/book sets out to create an integrated model of software development projects, using system dynamics (the model can be ‘run’ to produce outputs from inputs, assuming the necessary software is available).

Building a model of the software development process requires figuring out the behavior of all the important factors and Abdel-Hamid does a thorough job of enumerating the important factors and tracking down the available empirical work (in the 1980s). The system dynamics model, written in Dynamo appears in an appendix (I have not been able to locate any current implementation).

In the 1980s I would have agreed with Abdel-Hamid that it was possible to build a reasonably accurate model of software development projects. Thirty years later, I have tracked down a lot more empirical work and know a more about how software projects work. All this has taught me is that I don’t know enough to be able to build a model of software development projects; but I still think it is possible, one day.

There have been other attempts to build models of major aspects of software development projects (all using system dynamics), including Madachy’s PhD and later book “Software Process Dynamics”, and Buettner’s PhD (no book, yet???).

There are other books that include some combination of the words empirical, software and engineering in their title. On the whole these are collections of edited papers, whose chapters are written by researchers promoting their latest work; there is even one that aims to teach students how to do empirical work.

Dag Sjøberg has done some interesting empirical work and is currently working on an empirical book, this should be worth a look.

“R in Action” by Kabacoff is the closest to the statistical material, but at a more general level. “The R Book” by Crawley is the R book I would recommended, but it is not at all like the material I have written.